"Anytime Touchdown" and "Home Run" props are typically an eye-grabber, as these are fun bets to make and everyone wants to hit that one longshot lotto parlay. However, these introduce a unique house edge that is unlike any other. Typically, you can only bet "Yes" or "Over" on these types of bets.
These are one-sided markets, and understanding their dynamics is crucial to protecting your bankroll and thinking like a SpreadMaster.
What Are One-Sided Bets?
A one-sided bet is any wager where the vast majority of public money naturally flows to the "Yes" side—rooting for something to happen (or, the house doesn't offer an option to bet "No" or the "Under"). The sportsbook doesn't need to create a balanced line (like a point spread) because the action will never be balanced.
This applies to a huge range of bets, including:
Player Props: "Will Player X hit a home run?" or "Will the goalie record a shutout?"
Game Props: "Will the game go to overtime?" or "Will there be a safety?"
Futures Bets: "Will the Lakers win the NBA Championship?"
In every case, the public wants to bet on the exciting, affirmative outcome. Sportsbooks know this and build their profit model around it.
Futures Market Structure
Futures markets have disproportionately high house edges compared to standard betting products. In a Super Bowl winner market with 32 teams, converting all odds to implied probabilities should theoretically total 100%. In practice, these markets consistently total 120-125% or higher. This excess represents the hold percentage extracted by the operator.
Real Super Bowl Futures Example
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +450 | 18.18% |
| Bills | +550 | 15.38% |
| Ravens | +750 | 11.76% |
| 49ers | +850 | 10.53% |
| Lions | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Eagles | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Packers | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Cowboys | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Other 24 Teams | Various | 14.18% |
| TOTAL HOLD | 125.00% |
The 125% total means the market is priced with a 25% house edge before any individual bet is placed. This structural overpricing applies regardless of which outcome is selected.
One-Sided Bet Hold Comparison
| Market Type | Typical Hold | Your Disadvantage |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spreads | ~4.5% | Manageable |
| Player Props | 8-15% | Significant |
| SGP Markets | 20-30% | Severe |
| Futures Markets | 20-30% | Severe |
| "Anytime TD" Props | 15-25% | Severe |
The SpreadMasters Strategy
Recognizing these traps is the first step. Navigating them is what makes you a sharp bettor.
Always Price the "No"
For any simple "Yes/No" prop, do the math. Before you bet "Yes" on overtime at +800, calculate the fair price for "No." If the book is offering "No" at odds that are way worse than the fair price, you know you're paying a massive hidden tax on your "Yes" bet.
Be a Ruthless Line Shopper
The vig and hold on these markets can vary dramatically between sportsbooks. One book might have a 20% hold on their Super Bowl futures, while another has a 30% hold. For one-sided bets, shopping for the best possible price is not just a suggestion; it's absolutely essential for any chance at long-term profitability.
The Bottom Line
The bottom line is simple: any time you are betting on a popular, exciting, "Yes" outcome, you should assume you are paying a premium. At SpreadMasters, we will calculate how big the premium is and determine if value still exists in spite of it.
Remember: One-sided markets are designed to extract maximum profit from public enthusiasm. Understanding this dynamic is what separates recreational bettors from SpreadMasters. When everyone wants to bet "Yes," the house edge on "Yes" becomes massive. Approach these bets with extreme caution and mathematical precision.